Sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters that the producer alliance is expected to keep its current policy unchanged at its meeting on Sunday. The decision would mark a pause after the group accelerated the unwinding of earlier production restrictions, including the rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-a-day cut originally introduced in 2023.
The calculation has become increasingly complicated by the conflict. OPEC+ retains considerable influence over global supply, but disruptions caused by military action and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have weakened the relationship between official production decisions and actual market availability.
The strategic significance extends beyond crude volumes. The Strait is one of the world's most important energy corridors, and the conflict has disrupted exports from several regional producers. Reuters reported that OPEC+ members are already producing below their official targets because of the geopolitical crisis, while broader production restrictions remain in place through the end of 2026.
For the producer alliance, increasing output aggressively could risk surrendering market share without necessarily stabilising prices if physical supply remains constrained by geopolitical developments. Holding policy steady, by contrast, preserves flexibility while members assess the durability of the disruption.
The decision also illustrates a growing limitation on traditional oil-market management. OPEC+ can adjust barrels at the production point, but it cannot directly restore shipping routes, repair damaged infrastructure or remove military risk from a critical maritime corridor.
Markets are therefore likely to remain more sensitive to developments around the conflict than to OPEC+ policy alone. Any deterioration in regional security could tighten physical supply further, while a credible de-escalation could quickly reverse part of the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices.
For governments and energy-intensive industries, the implication is clear: oil-market risk is increasingly being determined by security conditions as much as by production quotas.
